Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . [37][38], Vulnerable Democratic incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC's Frontline program. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. RCP Gov Map Race . Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. November 7:CA-13, CA-22, IL-17, MI-07, NV-03, NY-03, NY-19, OH-01, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34, VA-02 move from Toss-up to Leans R; CA-49, CT-05, WA-08 Leans D to Leans R; IN-01, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, TX-28 Toss-up to Leans D.Read the analysis >. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Read the Analysis >. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. Ranging from true toss-ups to just barely on the competitive radar, this map shows as 'undecided' any district not considered 'safe' for the incumbent party in our Consensus 2022 House Forecast. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. 26th February 2023. All Rights Reserved. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. Republicans currently hold 20 of the 34 seats at stake in 2022. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . You can also view these ratings as a table. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . Each partys chances of winning every House seat. In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["sOA7J"]={},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":443,"300":421,"400":421,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-sOA7J"),window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("sOA7J"==b)window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Communications: Alison Graves Carley Allensworth Abigail Campbell Sarah Groat Caitlin Vanden Boom These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. We rated every race in play in 2022. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r