However, Nelson-Ogilvy sees housing prices cooling off a . The states unemployment rate in November was 2.2%. The median sale price for a house in West Valley City was $436,500 in September 2022, representing a 2.9% increase in year-over-year comparisons. There was a 98.0% sale-to-list price, down 2.7 points year over year. If you ask Perry, they have a silver lining. Still seemed achievable. The pandemic housing frenzy was still very much alive fueled by low, 3% interest rates, short housing supply, and fear of missing out driving both sellers and buyers to the market. Why is it taking two weeks, a month, six weeks?. The Ha read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! According to Realtor.com data, the current median days listed in Utah is 52, the highest since the onset of the pandemic, but still a ways away from pre-pandemic figures. However, it is also the third-most populous city in Utah, with a population of 116,961. The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. The mortgage rates will likely continue to rise compared to what they are today. I have moved the needle accordingly. Here are the latest figures, The Wests housing crunch began over a decade ago. Hes predicting Utahs home prices will only experience minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. So youll find the deals with the homebuilders, but youre not going to find the deals on (existing) homes, Eskic said. It just seems so odd to be in such a comfortable position and not have that as a practical option. At the very least, folks can expect some sort of moderation over the next few years but not a decline. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive.. The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Like many other housing markets around the country, the Utah housing market has reached new heights during the pandemic as a result of a perfect storm of low inventory, high demand, and interest rates near historic lows. Housing market predictions for 2023 vary, depending on the regional market and who you talk to, but no one is predicting a stellar year for buyers or sellers and certainly not for homebuilders. Half a million people from one state alone. Real Estate Investing for Beginners: Where to Invest in Real Estate, Airbnb Rental Income in 2021: The 100 Best US Cities, Why You Should Be Investing in San Antonio Real Estate, Top 9 Most Profitable Airbnb Locations with Double-Digit Cash on Cash Return, Research Shows the Nashville Housing Market Is Hot for 2019. Although predicting the future is always an exercise of caution, it is unlikely that the Utah housing market will collapse in 2023. Utah home prices remain significantly higher than the national average. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. A home is listed for sale in West Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Lake Powell can drop your jaw around every bend of the gorgeous reservoir with 200-foot cliffs. Theres going to be a terrible consolidation, he said, though he added he believes ultimately itll be good for the industry., In 2020 and 2021, when Congress was writing COVID-19 stimulus checks, Kelman said real estate diversified in an interesting way because those stimulus checks allowed people to experiment with real estate.. If you divided your housing price by your annual income, it was 2.6. Joining Good Morning Utah to share what to expect for Utah's housing market for 2022 is Ryan Kirkham with Summit Sotheby's and Utah realestate.com. The number of newly listed homes was 1,954 and up 1.4% year over year. Otherwise, the story is similar to many other states, with the number of homes sold decreasing, days on market increasing, and almost half of the listings dropping their price this month (48.9%). Gone are the days of brutal competition. Boating in Utah can be an unmatched experience. Powell, the Feds chairman, has indeed called it a pandemic frenzy housing bubble, but he and other experts all have consistently said its not like 2007 and 2008. The Utah housing market benefits from the states attractivity, which features a strong economy and job market. They can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. We go back to the 70s, for example, Eskic said. Wood said he was a little bit more optimistic, predicting minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. Several people claim that hedge funds, investors, and cash buyers are to blame for this lopsidedness. Join Us Preston was born in Provo, Utah, and raised in Spanish Fork, Utah. Rising financing costs will hinder housing demand and we may see home sales cooling. These factors positioned Utah in the top spot on the Bankrate Housing Heat Index. It would slow, but it wouldnt be stopped like it is now.. Market time rose 22 days from the third quarter of 2022. He's predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Average home value: $562,693. Browse through the largest marketplace of Real Estate professionals, We have an in-house team that will guide you through the process. However, because of the stiff competition, Utahns who are looking to buy property should prepare themselves not just financially and physically but also mentally. These numbers are nothing to worry about, as they indicate a return to a more balanced housing market in Utah. The number of days on the market had also increased sharply at 39 median D.o.M., compared to 15 the previous year, further indicating that the days when properties were being snatched off the market as soon as they were listed are long gone. REDFIN IS COMMITTED TO AND ABIDES BY THE FAIR HOUSING ACT AND EQUAL OPPORTUNITY ACT. Please check your email to verify your account. Average income: 74197. Utah certainly didnt miss out on the massive property boom that spread through the country over the past year. With rates hitting record lows of 2%, things are about to change in 2022 as recent trends on 30-year fixed mortgages have already come very close to 3%. increase. Once the market rebounds, buyers can be in an even more powerful position when the market shifts back to a more lopsided sellers market. But what about the increase in interest rates? So hire an experienced top-producing agent to help you price, market, and negotiate the best deal possible. If you would like to buy a house in this dynamic state, the best time to house hunt is in the early spring (April) when inventory is at its highest in preparation for the hot summer real estate market, and Utah house prices are at their lowest. Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. We still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said in November during a debate with Eskic at an annual gathering hosted by Ivory Homes, Utahs largest homebuilder. One will often find him drawing, doing toy photography, or dabbling in other geeky stuff when he's not helping investors make smarter decisions. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points yearover year. As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. The Utah housing market is poised for economic growth, continually making it a desirable place to live, bringing with it a demand for homes, straining supply, and causing prices to remain and increase in value. What is the housing market like in Cache County today? Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. Single Family Rentals Facing Challenges in 2023, January 2023 Mortgage Rates: What to Expect, Existing Home Sales Fall in November 2022. Price forecasts for this year (are) somewhat uncertain, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told the Salt Lake Board of Realtors crowd on Friday. How could I possibly give an objective opinion? REDFIN and all REDFIN variants, TITLE FORWARD, WALK SCORE, and the R logos, are trademarks of Redfin Corporation, registered or pending in the USPTO. The Utah housing market forecast for 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on the lookout for property to purchase. Months supply of inventory: 3 - up from 1 in September 2021. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. The question is, how far will that correction run and what will it mean for home prices in 2023? Median home price for Salt Lake residents over the last year was $564,062. Difference Since Last Month -$ 20,090 ( -3.7%) Key Takeaway The list price of homes in Saint George has decreased by 3.7% since December. Just remember, pricing has never been more critical than right now. A dear client asked me the other day Preston, why do you love Utah? It sounds clich, but I initially answered with a questionWhat isnt there to love about Utah?. Utah Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin Utah Housing Market Home prices in Utah were down 3.0% year-over-year in January. The Utah housing market has experienced consistent growth in real estate throughout the past five years, but it started to take off in mid-2020. It took an average of 55 days to sell a home during the fourth quarter. Historically, even if the nation experiences economic troubles, Wood said Utahs strong employment economy typically makes the state resilient. In addition, while year-on-year figures still show growth, monthly data is beginning to tell a different story of dropping prices, a trend that is expected to continue through the rest of 2022 and into 2023. In early 2022, momentum was slowing from 2021, but then the faucet just got turned off., 2021 was on fire, and in 2022 its an empty concert hall, he said. They. According to him, about half a million Californians browsed the website UtahRealEstate.com in search of property to buy. Over the past 12 months, the state added 43,300 jobs. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. In 2021 the average interest rate was 2.96%, the lowest interest rate that FreddieMac measured since 1971. Utah rallied relatively quickly back to a strong economy compared to the other 49 states. Even with the recent slowdown, a correctly priced home will sell, and it will sell with record equity growth over the last 10-year average. Right now, the continued rise in both mortgage rates and home price have kept many out of the housing market. However, prices are still significantly higher and homes are selling faster compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, noted Daniel Hale, Realtor.coms chief economist. For renters, these relentless price increases mean the path to ownership has narrowed even further. West Valley City is assimilated to a suburb of Salt Lake City, but it is also the second most populous city in the state, with 140,230 residents. Is the Utah housing market going to crash in 2023? In addition, the number of homes has increased along with significant population growth. Theycan also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. However, because of the growing number of migrants in the state, Utah is now faced with what experts say is a severe imbalance in its housing market. of $518,200. 28.7% of homes sold above the asking price, reaching a median sale price of $525,000, which represents a 7.8% increase in the past year. While Utah is below the national average in many areas, home prices have managed to remain strong. Thats the story of 2022. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. Dont focus on the loss you may believe you are experiencing if you sell today. With their buying power significantly diminished, house hunters find themselves priced out of the market or may consider postponing their home-buying plans until interest rates return to a more affordable level. Utahs housing experts continue to shy away from the word crash, since what happened in 2022 is still nothing like what happened after the 2006 housing bubble popped. Next came Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tampa. After a peak of the housing market in May 2022, when the Utah median home price reached a record $577,500, Utah house prices have slowly been decreasing, although they remain higher than they were the year prior. All Rights Reserved, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. Search and compare real estate agents near you. over year. RELATED: 'It's daunting:' How housing costs are affecting Utah's ski resort staff Listing prices, rents, and mortgage rates are all expected to climb while income rises. The median sale price for a house in Salt Lake City has reached $550,000, increasing by 6.3% compared to the previous year, and the median number of days on the market was 32, compared to 17 in September 2021. Utah Housing Market- Trends and Predictions for 2022, Preston Hicks Real Estate Group - JMG Utah, What does exclusive right to sell mean? This trend continued through the pandemic resulting in record-high home prices and rental rate growth. Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Forecast for 2022 High prices, likely interest rates increases, listing . Hes predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy., Wood also said even if home prices dropped 10%, they wouldnt set off a wave of foreclosures, unlike what happened in 2008, which just pulled prices down. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list. So (many have) stopped new construction and consequently weve seen new production just fall off, Wood said. Each year, the Sal. Median List Price By Bedroom Count Median List Price Compared To Nearby Cities By comparison, interest rates 20 years ago averaged between 6%-7%, and 1981 experienced interest rates of 16%. Keep in mind, however, that during the pandemic housing frenzy from early 2020 to late 2022, the nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, so even if the most pessimistic predictions pan out, they arent slated to erase the historic price gains seen over the last two years. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. According to data collected in September 2022, the latest available at the time of writing, the median sale price for a house in Utah stood at $533,500, representing a 5.6% increase compared to September 2021. One of the most common myths going around about the Utah housing market forecast for 2022 and its present market is that it is just a bubble waiting to burst. Wood, the Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, detailed his forecast report commissioned by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, explaining why he still feels optimistic for real estate even if 2023 wont be a year of celebration.. However, like we saw during the pandemic housing frenzy, that could all vary depending on the region. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. About Us Even during the 2008 Recession, Utah felt the pain but, comparatively speaking, suffered a less deep economic hit. Shouldnt I wait for mortgage rates to decrease before I buy? Connect with an Agent From peak-to-trough, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on interest rates. Dont wait. When we look at just how much weve peaked earlier this year, I think well start seeing negative year-over-year readings late winter, early spring, Eskic said. While neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash, they do expect 2023 to be a challenging year, especially for homebuilders that leaned hard into speculative building in 2021. In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. 2020 further increased that number to almost 73% as median home sales prices reached $380,000. The median home price has increased from $345,000 in September 2019 to $553,500 in September 2022, with a peak of $577,500 in May 2022, representing a staggering 60.43% increase in 36 months, well above the national average. Heres why, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Home sales are crashing down to reality in the West, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. A bubble is highly unlikely at this point in time because a bubble is defined as a prolonged period of actual price decline, not moderation or deceleration. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. Since the pandemic began, housing prices in the Beehive State have skyrocketed to the point that more than 50% of households can no longer afford to buy median-priced properties in the state. However, during the Great Recession, prices declined for years before accelerating again. We break down our data by county, but we cover major cities in this region including Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Provo, and West Jordan. That is, after a summer of twist and turns, when prices peaked, interest rates went sky high, buyers were shocked out of the market, and sellers were saying, Wait, how come were not selling the home in two days? Their goal is mainly to make a profit from investing in real estate but each of them has different approaches and strategies to achieve their goals. It was the year that put homeownership far out of reach. Utahs housing market has a tight supply, and while we may see prices decrease somewhat, its not likely to experience a significant decline in housing values. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. Branca, 30, knew he wanted to buy somewhere in Salt Lake County so hed have a reasonable commute to work. At an annual rate of 2.6%, this was the slowest pace of growth since the state started recovering jobs post-COVID. 2022 housing market forecast In 2022, Redfin itself went through two rounds of layoffs. Realtor.com has predicted that the Salt Lake City region will be the top housing market in the country for the year with an anticipated price and sales growth of 8.5% and 15.2% respectively. After the next seven months, the median price. Yes! A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States.. The best way to describe it, he said, is an abrupt contraction thats had a dramatic effect on all aspects of the market, but especially on homebuilding, which he and Eskic worry will exacerbate Utahs housing shortage long term. The Utah housing markets that are most overvalued are Ogden, Provo, and Salt Lake City. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Here are some of the Utah real estate market trends 2022 will bring our way: Over the past several years, Americans have been treated to near spoiled, actually by very low-interest rates. Meanwhile, new home construction. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. At the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market as the available inventory is not keeping up with the demand despite an increase in the number of houses for sale and months of housing supply. The latest housing data shows the median priced home in Utah's most populated county increased to $550,000 in the third quarter of 2021. The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200.. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until "finally turning negative 2.1% in December," Wood wrote in his report. I dont think thats happened yet.. In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics. How much do homes in Saint George, UT cost? READ REDFIN'S FAIR HOUSING POLICY. All Rights Reserved, The great housing market reset of 2022: The year the Fed had no mercy, U.S. navigating pandemic housing bubble, Fed chairman says. whether homes are becoming more or less affordable. Utah Housing Market Forecast in 2023. They say it will pose challenges, especially for homebuilders, but also rebalance a market thats priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home. Historically, brief and prolonged price declines in Utah went hand in hand with joblessness and recessions, both of which dont seem likely in the next two to three years. Yeah, thats a valid point, Wood replied, drawing laughs from the crowd. Wallethub found Utah is the. Contact Us, Real Estate Blog Utah Housing Market at a Glance September 2022 Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Should You Invest in the Phoenix Housing Market in 2020? But now, those days of wild buyer demand and a frenzy of seller activity is over, and real estate agents outnumber active listings. I call it the great debate, Ivory said. The states economy is still performing very well, but this is not enough to push the housing market forward at the pace we saw during the height of the pandemic. . The researchers Jim Wood and Dejan Eskic, both from the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Institute had a friendly debate Friday during Ivory Homes annual private gathering of hundreds of homebuilders and other industry partners from across the state. We dont have that.. In 2022, that was Joseph Brancas reality, along with plenty of other Utahns who wanted to join the mad dash to homeownership, but ultimately ended up walking away. Utah may be the 13th-largest state in the country by area, but it is also the 11th-least densely populated. Nevertheless, at the time of the writing, the Utah housing market remains a sellers market due to the lack of inventory. The ones who are truly making money in real estate in Utah are the investors. When they were 30 in 1994, they purchased their second home for around $120,000 on a combined income of around $85,000, Branca said. Copyright: 2023 Redfin. While the market in Utah is feeling a correction similar to the rest of the Nation, it weathered the 2008 recession relatively well and is expected to maintain a strong housing market. Like Salt Lake City, the West Valley City housing market is competitive, with listed properties receiving four offers on average and selling after 41 days on the market. With nearly 2,000 miles of shoreline, Lake Powell possesses endless outdoor adventures. Weve been spoiled with historically low mortgage rates over the past decade. Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. Comparatively speaking, I make more money than my parents combined income at my age and still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality than what they were able to purchase at that same age, Branca said. This gives us a 23.7% combined overall growth rate This projected growth puts them ahead of other booming markets like Boise City ID, Spokane WA, and Indianapolis IN. The time to purchase your primary residence is today and has almost always been today. High-cost areas like San Francisco, he said, will see a 15% price decline. However, they expect the market to enter a correction that will persist into 2023 thanks to the Federal Reserves aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. This data does not reflect actual moves. Earlier in 2021, Utah was considered as one of the hottest markets in the country, second only to Idaho. The average rate for 2022, based on the forecasts of seven organization . The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. So Branca said he made the decision to back out of the market, hoping to maybe consider buying again when interest rates and potentially prices come down. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%. Eskic has a more bearish outlook. And it looks like that trend is not going to end any time soon. Key Market Stats for the Utah Housing Market According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: Median home price: $533,500 - a 5.6% Y.o.Y. Property values will likely decline over the next 6 to 12 months and then flatten in the Utah housing market. The market was suddenly plunged into ice cold water when the Federal Reserves war with record levels of inflation sent mortgage rates skyward, and the mask that helped drive home prices so high suddenly lifted. A more balanced housing market will collapse in 2023 that the market is by... And it looks like that trend is not going to end any time.... Yeah, thats a valid point, Wood said Utahs strong employment typically! A 15 % price decline 7.08 % percentage of homes that had price drops, up from in..., Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Salt Lake city sellers market due to the same the! What is the Utah housing market forecast in 2022, based on massive... 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